英国卫报：“群体免疫”有效吗？
写在前面的话：
篇章阅读一直是高考英语拉分重点，也是同学们一直头疼的问题。对于阅读部分，同学们一
方面要掌握答题技巧，扩充词汇量，另一方面也要拓展自己的阅读面，尤其是阅读一些外刊
原文，体会英文地道表达和文章结构的呈现方式。虽然一开始会很难，但是长期坚持下去，
阅读能力就会有质的提升！
对于本资料的使用：
如果你是阅读一般，平时不能完全看懂文章，答题正确率较低的同学，先不要阅读原文，直
接阅读每个段落的词汇详解部分，打好词汇基础。然后看每个段落的句子分析，再打开本文，
进行阅读，回顾词汇及句子分析，感受原文风采。
如果你是阅读能力强，词汇储备量高，答题正确率高的同学，可直接阅读本篇外刊文章，挑
战自己，尽最大能力去理解文章中的句子含义，了解文章大意。之后再看下面的词汇详细介
绍，查缺补漏。如此，进一步提升自己的阅读能力，强化语言实力。
So, are you ready now ? Let's read it!
篇章总览
2020 年 3 月 13 日，英国首席科学顾问称，需要 60%英国民众感染新冠来建立群体免疫。但
是“群体免疫”真的有效吗？背后的理论是什么？英国国内媒体如何看待英国政府的防控政
策？我们来看看英国卫报 3 月 14 日的一篇报道。
Herd immunity: will the UK's coronavirus strategy work?
Ministers look to have given up on containment in favour of a novel approach that some
experts are wary of. Herd immunity is a phrase normally used when large numbers of
children have been vaccinated against a disease like measles, reducing the chances that
others will get it. As a tactic in fighting a pandemic for which there is no vaccine, it is novel
and some say alarming. It relies on people getting the disease – in this case Covid-19 – and
becoming immune as a result. Generally it is thought that those who recover will be immune,
at least for now, so they won't get it twice. But allowing the population to build up immunity
in this way - rather than through widespread testing, tracking down the contacts of every
case and isolating them, as many other countries in Asia and Europe have chosen to do -
could increase the risk to the most vulnerable: older people with underlying health problems.
To reach herd immunity, about 60% of the population would need to get ill and become
immune, according to Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser. Though
it could need as much as 70% or more. Even scientists who understand the strategy are anxious.
"I do worry that making plans that assume such a large proportion of the population will
become infected (and hopefully recovered and immune) may not be the very best that we
can do," said Martin Hibberd, professor ofemerging infectious disease at the London
School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. The government's "nudge unit" seems to favour this strategy. Dr David Halpern, a psychologist who heads the Behavioural Insights Team,
said on BBC News: "There's going to be a point, assuming the epidemic flows and grows, as
we think it probably will do, where you'll want to cocoon, you'll want to protect those at-risk
groups so that they basically don't catch the disease and by the time they come out of their
cocooning, herd immunity's been achieved in the rest of the population."
"Another strategy might be to try to contain [it] longer and perhaps long enough for a therapy
to emerge that might allow some kind of treatment. This seems to be the strategy of countries
such as Singapore. While this containment approach is clearly difficult (and may be impossible
for many countries), it does seem a worthy goal; and those countries that can should aim to
do." But Anthony Costello, a paediatrician （ 儿 科 医 生 ） and formerWorld Health
Organization director, said that the UK government was out of kilter with other countries in
looking to herd immunity as the answer. It could conflict with WHO policy, he said in a series
of Twitter posts, which is to contain the virus by tracking and tracing all cases.He quoted Dr
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHOdirector general, who said: "The idea that countries
should shift from containment to mitigation is wrong and dangerous."
Herd immunity might not even last, Costello said. "Does coronavirus cause strong herd
immunity or is it like flu where new strains emerge each year needing repeat vaccines? We
have much to learn about Co-V immune responses." Vaccines, he said, were a much safer
way of bringing it about.
小贴士：
Herd immunity 群体免疫 （group immunity）
是指人群或牲畜群体对传染的抵抗力。群体免疫水平高，表示群体中对传染具有抵抗力的动
物百分比高。因为，疾病发生流行的可能性不仅取决于动物群体中有抵抗力的个体数，而且
与动物群体中个体间接触的频率有关。如果群体中有 70%—80%的动物有抵抗力，就不会发
生大规模的爆发流行。
the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine 伦敦卫生与热带医学院
是伦敦大学下属的一所顶尖的医学研究生院，专门进行公共卫生及热带医学的教学及研究工
作，致力于提升全球健康水平。
nudge unit 助推小组 （即 行为洞察力小组 the Behavioural Insights Team）
nudge 本义是“轻推”的意思。这里的 nudge 是诺贝尔经济学奖得主理查德·塞勒和卡斯·桑
斯坦共同提出的概念，中文译为“助推”，旨在不需要强制性手段的情况下，巧妙地引导人
们做出更理性的思考与选择。nudge unit 指“行为洞察力小组”，其目的是利用行为科学来解决现实世界的问题，帮助普通个体、公司、医院、政府高层及相关组织做出更明智的决策。
Twitter posts 推特发帖
Twitter（中文通称推特）是一家美国社交网络及微博客的服务网站，致力于服务公众对话。
专有名词积累：
chief scientific adviser 首席科学顾问
emerging infectious disease 新发传染病
World Health Organization 世界卫生组织
director general 局长，处长
词汇详解
第一段词汇
Ministers look to have given up on containment in favour of a novel approach that some
experts are wary of. Herd immunity is a phrase normally used when large numbers of children
have beenvaccinated against a disease like measles （ 麻 疹 ） , reducing the chances
that others will get it. As atactic in fighting a pandemic for which there is no vaccine, it is
novel and some say alarming. It relies on people getting the disease – in this case Covid-19
– and becoming immune as a result. Generally it is thought that those who recover will be
immune, at least for now, so they won't get it twice.
★ give up on sth/sb
表示“对…绝望；对…不抱希望”
eg：My teachers gave up on me.
老师们不对我抱任何希望了。
★ containment /kənˈteɪnmənt/
n. 控制，抑制；遏制；封锁（政策）
eg: We should pay attention to the containment of the epidemic.
我们应该重视对流行病的控制。
★ in favour of sth
表示“赞同，支持
近义词：approve, support
eg: Senior ministers are in favour of the proposal.
高级部长们都表示支持这项提议。★ vaccinate /ˈvæksɪneɪt/v. 给…接种疫苗固定搭配：vaccinate sb against sth。eg: All
children should be vaccinated against measles.所有儿童都应该接种麻疹疫苗。
★ chance /tʃɑːns/ n. 可能性一些关于 chance 的高频表达：1.(The) chances are (that)… 表
示“可能…”，相当于 it is likely that...。eg: The chances are that you won't have to pay.你可
能不用付钱。
2.on the off chance that… 表示“心存侥幸地，怀着渺茫希望地”，有点类似于汉语中“万
一”。eg: I'm glad I found you at home; I just called round on the off chance that you'd be in.
看到你在家我很高兴，我只是抱着万一的希望来拜访你的。
3.take a chance 表示“冒险，碰运气”。eg: He took his chances and jumped into the water.
他冒险跳进水里。
★ measles /ˈmiːzlz/ 不可数名词，指“麻疹”。
★ tactic /ˈtæktɪk/ n. 手法，策略 eg: They tried all kinds of tactics to get us to go. 他们施
尽所有的招数想让我们去。
★ novel /ˈnɒvl/ n. 小说 adj. 新颖的，与众不同的新型冠状病毒未被正式命名为 COVID-
19 前，便被称作 the novel coronavirus。
★ alarming /əˈlɑːmɪŋ/adj. 使人惊恐的，引起恐慌的近义词: frightening, fearsome,
dreadful, terrifying 等。
eg: The rainforests are disappearing at an alarming rate.雨林正以惊人的速度消失。
★ pandemic /pænˈdemɪk/adj. （疾病）在全国（或世界）流行的 n. （全国或全球性）
流行病，瘟疫
★ immune /ɪˈmjuːn/
adj. 免疫的；
eg: Adults are often immune to measles. 成人往往对麻疹有免疫力。
But allowing the population to build up immunity in this way - rather than through
widespread testing, tracking down the contacts of every case and isolating them, as many
other countries in Asia and Europe have chosen to do - could increase the risk to the most
vulnerable: older people withunderlying health problems.
★ build up
表示“增高，加强”
eg: The regime built up the largest army in Africa.
该政权逐渐建立起一支在非洲规模最大的军队。★ contact /ˈkɒntækt/
这里作名词，指“接触的人”。
★ track down
表示“搜寻到，追查到”
eg: The best way to discover them is to measure these items explicitly and track down probl
ems.
发现这些问题的最佳方式是精确度量这些项目，并且追查问题。
★ isolate /ˈaɪsəleɪt/
v. 隔离
eg: We know how to isolate poultry.
我们知道如何隔离家禽。
★ underlying /ˌʌndəˈlaɪɪŋ/ adj. 根本的，潜在的，隐含的 eg: Many of those who died
were older men with underlying health problems.许多死亡病例都是有潜在疾病的老年人。
第二段词汇
To reach herd immunity, about 60% of the population would need to get ill and become
immune, according to Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser. Though
it could need as much as 70% or more. Even scientists who understand the strategy are
anxious. "I do worry that making plans that assume such a large proportion of the population
will become infected (and hopefully recovered and immune) may not be the very best that
we can do," said Martin Hibberd, professor of emerging infectious disease at the London
School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
★ as much as + 数字
表示“高达，多至”，是一个高频词汇，用于强调数量大得惊人。
eg: This figure is expected to grow by as much as 10 percent annually as the nation's
population ages increases.
随着全国人口的老龄化的增加，这一数字预期将以每年高达 10%的速度增长。[写作推荐]
★ assume / ə ˈ sjuːm/ v. 假 定 ， 认 为 词 转 ：
assumptioneg: For this reason, we must assume as little
as possible about the use of these operations.
针对该原因，我们必须假设关于这些操作使用的可能性越少越好。★ emerging / ɪ 'm ɝ d ʒ ɪ ŋ/ adj. 新 兴 的 ， 发 展 初 期 的
eg: But the future for emerging markets might not be so profitable.
但新兴市场的未来可能并不那么有利可图。
★ infectious / ɪ n ˈ fek ʃ ə s/adj. 传 染 性 的 ， 感 染
的”eg: what other infectious diseases are we missing?
我们还忽略了哪些其他的感染性疾病？
The government's "nudge unit" seems to favour this strategy. Dr David Halpern, a
psychologist whoheads the Behavioural Insights Team, said on BBC News: "There's going to
be a point, assuming the epidemic flows and grows, as we think it probably will do, where
you'll want to cocoon, you'll want to protect those at-risk groups so that they basically
don't catch the disease and by the time they come out of their cocooning, herd immunity's
been achieved in the rest of the population."
★ head /hed/v. 领导，主管近义表达: lead, be in charge of sth, be in command of sth……
eg: She has been appointed to head the research team.她受命领导研究小组。
★ cocoon /kəˈkuːn/ n. 茧 v. 把…包围起来保护，用…完全保护起来 eg: We were warm and
safe, cocooned in our sleeping bags.我们在睡袋里睡觉，暖和又安全。
★ at-risk 处于危险中的，可能遭受伤害的 eg: Social services keep lists of at-risk children.社
工组织保留有可能遭受伤害的孩子名单。
★ catch /kætʃ/ v. 染病，得病 = come down with sth 来表示“得病”。eg: Thomas came
down with cough at the weekend.托马斯周末染上了咳嗽。
第三段词汇
But Anthony Costello, a paediatrician （ 儿 科 医 生 ） and former World Health
Organization director, said that the UK government was out of kilter with other countries in
looking to herd immunity as theanswer. It could conflict with WHO policy, he said in a series
of Twitter posts, which is to contain the virus by tracking and tracing all cases.He quoted Dr
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO director general, who said: "The idea that countries
should shift from containment to mitigation is wrong and dangerous."
★ be out of kilter with sth 表示“与…不一致，与…不同，不匹配”eg: His views are out of
kilter with world opinion.他的观点与世人的看法不一致。★ answer /ˈɑːnsə(r)/ 表示“解决方案”，是一个用来提出解决措施的高频词。固定搭配为
the answer to sth。eg: The police do not have an answer to rising crime.警方没有办法解决犯
罪率上升的问题。
★ trace /treɪs/ v. 追踪，查出，找到= track downeg: She could trace her family tree back to
the 16th century. 她能把本族家谱追溯到 16 世纪。
★ mitigation /ˌmɪtɪˈɡeɪʃn/不可数名词，指“减轻，缓解”词转： v. mitigate 缓和;减
轻 eg: 缩 小 地 区 差 异 :mitigate the regional disparities 减 缓 全 球 变 暖 ： mitigate global
warming。
第四段词汇
Herd immunity might not even last, Costello said. "Does coronavirus cause strong herd
immunity or is it like flu where new strains emerge each year needing repeat vaccines? We
have much to learn about Co-V immune responses." Vaccines, he said, were a much safer
way of bringing it about.
★ strain /streɪn/
含义 1 n. 疾病或动植物的“类型，品种”
eg: This is only one of the many strains of the disease.
这种病有许多类型，这只是其中之一。
含义 2 n. 压力，重负
固定搭配：
put strain on sb 给某人压力
under strain 压力之下
eg: Their marriage is under great strain at the moment.
眼下他们的婚姻关系非常紧张。
These repayments are putting a strain on our finances.
偿还这些债务对我们的财务状况形成了压力。
句子分析
第一段例句
Ministers look to have given up on containment in favour of a novel approach that some
experts are wary of. Herd immunity is a phrase normally used when large numbers of children have been vaccinated against a disease like measles, reducing the chances that others will get
it. As a tactic in fighting a pandemic for which there is no vaccine, it is novel and some say
alarming. It relies on people getting the disease – in this case Covid-19 – and becoming
immune as a result. Generally it is thought that those who recover will be immune, at least for
now, so they won't get it twice.
分析：As a tactic in fighting a pandemic for which there is no vaccine, it is novel and some
say alarming.
句子的主干部分为 It is novel，为主系表结构。as a tactic in fighting a pandemic for which
there is no vaccine 是介词短语作状语，表示“作为….”，其中包含一个介词+关系代词引导
的定语从句：As a tactic in fighting a pandemic (for which there is no vaccine)，for which 引
导的定语从句修饰 pandemic，还原为正常语序是 There is no vaccine for a pandemic。
翻译：英国政府放弃遏制疫情，寄望于新途径，引发专家担忧。一般来说，当大量儿童注射
麻疹之类的疫苗以减低他人感染该疾病的风险时，人们会使用“群体免疫”这个词。但“群
体免疫”作为一种防治策略，抗击暂无疫苗可用的大流行病，这是前所未闻的，有些人对此
表示很担忧。
But allowing the population to build up immunity in this way - rather than through
widespread testing, tracking down the contacts of every case and isolating them, as many
other countries in Asia and Europe have chosen to do - could increase the risk to the most
vulnerable: older people with underlying health problems.
分析：这段话很长，句子由动名词短语 allowing the population to build up immunity 作主语，
in this way 作方式状语，谓语动词是 could increase，总的是个主谓宾的结构。但是本句难
在，在主谓之间插入了一句话，即： rather than through widespread testing, tracking down
the contacts of every case and isolating them, as many other countries in Asia and Europe
have chosen to do。这样显得更加地道，平时的英语阅读材料大多会将这句话放在句末，从
而降低这段话的理解难度。
翻译：但是，让民众以这种方式获得免疫力，而不是像亚洲和欧洲的许多国家那样通过大范
围的检测、追踪每位患者的接触史再进行隔离，这可能会增加最易受伤害人群（有潜在健康
问题的老年人）的感染风险。
第二段例句
To reach herd immunity, about 60% of the population would need to get ill and become
immune, according to Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser. Though
it could need as much as 70% or more. Even scientists who understand the strategy are
anxious. "I do worry that making plans that assume such a large proportion of the population will become infected (and hopefully recovered and immune) may not be the very best that
we can do," said Martin Hibberd, professor of emerging infectious disease at the London
School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
分析： "I do worry that making plans that assume such a large proportion of the population
will become infected (and hopefully recovered and immune) may not be the very best that
we can do." 本句话中，借助助动词 do 对谓语动词 worry 进行强调，且 worry 后跟了宾语
从句 making plans may not be the very best that we can do. 其中含有 that 引导的定语从句
修饰 the very best。且句中 making plans 后又跟了 that 引导的同位语从句解释说明 plans 的
具体内容。 学生在理解时候，一定要注意这其中的逻辑结构，正确把握句子含义。
翻译：根据英国政府首席科学顾问帕特里克·瓦兰斯爵士（Sir Patrick Vallance），要实现“群
体免疫”，大约需要 60%的人口（虽然这一数字可能要达到 70%或者更高）患病并免疫。而
即使是深谙这一策略的科学家也不免感到忧虑。伦敦卫生与热带医学学院新传染病学教授马
丁·希伯德（Martin Hibberd）表示：“我确实担心，假设如此大比例的人口感染（希望他们
会康复，进而免疫），再由此制定计划，这可能不是我们最应该做的事。”
The government's "nudge unit" seems to favour this strategy. Dr David Halpern, a
psychologist who heads the Behavioural Insights Team, said on BBC News: "There's going to
be a point, assuming the epidemic flows and grows, as we think it probably will do, where
you'll want to cocoon, you'll want to protect those at-risk groups so that they basically don't
catch the disease and by the time they come out of their cocooning, herd immunity's been
achieved in the rest of the population."
分析：There's going to be a point, assuming the epidemic flows and grows, as we think it
probably will do, where you'll want to cocoon, you'll want to protect those at-risk groups so
that they basically don't catch the disease and by the time they come out of their cocooning,
herd immunity's been achieved in the rest of the population." 这句话比较长，分析句子结构
可知，主干是 There's going to be a point，后面跟了较多成分，首先是现在分词短语
assuming ……作条件状语，其次是 where 引导的定语从句，要注意这里有，两个以 you'll 开
头的句子，其实都是定语从句。定语从句中又包含了 so that 引导的结果状语从句。后面 and
之后是 by the time 引导的时间状语从句。
翻译：政府的“助推小组（即行为观察小组）”似乎赞成这一战略。小组负责人大卫·哈尔
珀恩博士（Dr David Halpern）在接受 BBC 采访时说：“假设疫情如同我们设想的一样持续
发展扩散，迟早会出现这样一个阶段：你想自我隔离，你还得保护那些高危人群，这样他们
基本上不会感染这种疾病，当他们走出自我隔离时，群体免疫已经在其余的人口中实现。”
第三段例句
"Another strategy might be to try to contain [it] longer and perhaps long enough for a therapy to emerge that might allow some kind of treatment.This seems to be the strategy of countries
such as Singapore. While this containment approach is clearly difficult (and may be impossible
for many countries), it does seem a worthy goal; and those countries that can should aim to
do."
分析：Another strategy might be to try to contain [it] longer and perhaps long enough for a
therapy to emerge that might allow some kind of treatment. 本 句 中 含 有 省 略 成 分 and
perhaps long enough for a therapy，完整一点应该是：and perhaps to try to contain it long
enough for a therapy。句子开头出现了两个动词不定式，to try 作表语，to contain 作宾语。
句子后半部分的 to emerge 作后置定语，意为“出现的一种疗法”。that might allow some
kind of treatment 是有 that 引导的定语从句修饰先行词 therapy。
翻译：“另一种策略可能是尝试拉长控制防线，也许长到能出现一种疗法，开展某种治疗。
这似乎是新加坡等国家的战略。这种遏制办法显然很困难（对许多国家来说几乎是不可能
的），但它不失为一个有价值的目标，有能力的国家不妨一试。”
But Anthony Costello, a paediatrician （ 儿 科 医 生 ） and former World Health
Organization director, said that the UK government was out of kilter with other countries in
looking to herd immunity as the answer. It could conflict with WHO policy, he said in a series
of Twitter posts, which is to contain the virus by tracking and tracing all cases. He quoted Dr
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO director general, who said: "The idea that countries
should shift from containment to mitigation is wrong and dangerous."
分析： It could conflict with WHO policy, he said in a series of Twitter posts, which is to
contain the virus by tracking and tracing all cases. 本句话中同样含有插入语，he said in a
series of Twitter posts，其中 in a series of 是介词短语作方式状语，逗号后是 which 引导的
非限制定语从句，对前面的 WHO policy 进行修饰。
翻译：但儿科医生、前世界卫生组织干事安东尼·科斯特洛（AnthonyCostello）表示，英国
政府寻求以群免疫为答案，与其他国家脱节。他在推特上连续发帖子称，英国防疫策略可能
与世卫组织的政策——即通过追踪所有病例来遏制病毒——相冲突。他援引世卫组织总干事
特德罗斯·阿德哈诺姆·格布雷耶苏斯博士（Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus）的话说：“认
为国家应该将工作重点从遏制疫情转向降低损失的想法是错误且危险的。”
第四段例句
Herd immunity might not even last, Costello said. "Does coronavirus cause strong herd
immunity or is it like flu where new strains emerge each year needing repeat vaccines? We
have much to learn about Co-V immune responses." Vaccines, he said, were a much safer
way of bringing it about.
分 析 ： Does coronavirus cause strong herd immunity or is it like flu where new strains
emerge each year needing repeat vaccines? 段中的这句话，是两个一般疑问句构成的并列
选择句，难点在后面一句 is it like flu where new strains emerge each year needing repeat
vaccines?这句中，flu 后跟了 where 引导的定语从句修饰，相当于 new strains emerge from flu
each year，同时定语从句还带了现在分词短语 needing repeat vaccines。翻译：科斯特洛表示群体免疫力甚至可能不会持续。“冠状病毒会引起强效群体免疫力吗？
还是会像流感一样，每年出现新的毒株，需要重复注射疫苗？关于新型肺炎的免疫反应，我
们还有很多需要了解的地方。”他认为要遏制疫情，疫苗是一种安全得多的方法。
篇章回顾
看完了词汇和例句分析，现在在把原文看一遍吧！是不是好理解多了呢？
原版英文
Herd immunity: will the UK's coronavirus strategy work?
Ministers look to have given up on containment in favour of a novel approach that some
experts are wary of. Herd immunity（群体免疫） is a phrase normally used when large
numbers of children have been vaccinated against a disease like measles, reducing the
chances that others will get it. As a tactic in fighting a pandemic for which there is no vaccine,
it is novel and some say alarming. It relies on people getting the disease – in this case Covid-
19 – and becoming immune as a result. Generally it is thought that those who recover will be
immune, at least for now, so they won't get it twice. But allowing the population to build up
immunity in this way - rather than through widespread testing, tracking down the contacts of
every case and isolating them, as many other countries in Asia and Europe have chosen to do
- could increase the risk to the most vulnerable: older people with underlying health problems.
To reach herd immunity, about 60% of the population would need to get ill and become
immune, according to Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser（首席科
学顾问）. Though it could need as much as 70% or more. Even scientists who understand the
strategy are anxious. "I do worry that making plans that assume such a large proportion of
the population will become infected (and hopefully recovered and immune) may not be the
very best that we can do," said Martin Hibberd, professor of emerging infectious disease （新
发传染病）at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine（伦敦卫生与热带医学院）.
The government's "nudge unit"（行为洞察力小组）seems to favour this strategy. Dr David
Halpern, a psychologist who heads the Behavioural Insights Team, said on BBC News: "There's
going to be a point, assuming the epidemic flows and grows, as we think it probably will do,
where you'll want to cocoon, you'll want to protect those at-risk groups so that they basically
don't catch the disease and by the time they come out of their cocooning, herd immunity's
been achieved in the rest of the population."
"Another strategy might be to try to contain [it] longer and perhaps long enough for a therapy
to emerge that might allow some kind of treatment. This seems to be the strategy of countries
such as Singapore. While this containment approach is clearly difficult (and may be impossible
for many countries), it does seem a worthy goal; and those countries that can should aim to do." But Anthony Costello, a paediatrician （ 儿 科 医 生 ） and former World Health
Organization（世卫组织） director, said that the UK government was out of kilter with other
countries in looking to herd immunity as the answer. It could conflict with WHO policy, he
said in a series of Twitter posts（推特发文）, which is to contain the virus by tracking and
tracing all cases.He quoted Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO director general（处
长，局长）, who said: "The idea that countries should shift from containment to mitigation is
wrong and dangerous."
Herd immunity might not even last, Costello said. "Does coronavirus cause strong herd
immunity or is it like flu where new strains emerge each year needing repeat vaccines? We
have much to learn about Co-V immune responses." Vaccines, he said, were a much safer
way of bringing it about.
中文版
群体免疫：英国的冠状病毒应对策略有用吗？
英国政府放弃遏制疫情，寄望于新途径，引发专家担忧。一般来说，当大量儿童注射麻疹之
类的疫苗以减低他人感染该疾病的风险时，人们会使用“群体免疫”这个词。但“群体免疫”
作为一种防治策略，抗击暂无疫苗可用的大流行病，这是前所未闻的，有些人对此表示很担
忧。但是，让民众以这种方式获得免疫力，而不是像亚洲和欧洲的许多国家那样通过大范围
的检测、追踪每位患者的接触史再进行隔离，这可能会增加最易受伤害人群（有潜在健康问
题的老年人）的感染风险。
根据英国政府首席科学顾问帕特里克·瓦兰斯爵士（Sir Patrick Vallance），要实现“群体免
疫”，大约需要 60%的人口（虽然这一数字可能要达到 70%或者更高）患病并免疫。而即使
是深谙这一策略的科学家也不免感到忧虑。伦敦卫生与热带医学学院新传染病学教授马
丁·希伯德（Martin Hibberd）表示：“我确实担心，假设如此大比例的人口感染（希望他们
会康复，进而免疫），再由此制定计划，这可能不是我们最应该做的事。”政府的“助推小
组（即行为观察小组）”似乎赞成这一战略。小组负责人大卫·哈尔珀恩博士（Dr David Halpern）
在接受 BBC 采访时说：“假设疫情如同我们设想的一样持续发展扩散，迟早会出现这样一
个阶段：你想自我隔离，你还得保护那些高危人群，这样他们基本上不会感染这种疾病，当
他们走出自我隔离时，群体免疫已经在其余的人口中实现。”
“另一种策略可能是尝试拉长控制防线，也许长到能出现一种疗法，开展某种治疗。这似乎
是新加坡等国家的战略。这种遏制办法显然很困难（对许多国家来说几乎是不可能的），但
它不失为一个有价值的目标，有能力的国家不妨一试。”但儿科医生、前世界卫生组织干事
安东尼·科斯特洛（AnthonyCostello）表示，英国政府寻求以群免疫为答案，与其他国家脱
节。他在推特上连续发帖子称，英国防疫策略可能与世卫组织的政策——即通过追踪所有病
例来遏制病毒——相冲突。他援引世卫组织总干事特德罗斯·阿德哈诺姆·格布雷耶苏斯博士
（Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus）的话说：“认为国家应该将工作重点从遏制疫情转向
降低损失的想法是错误且危险的。”科斯特洛表示群体免疫力甚至可能不会持续。“冠状病毒会引起强效群体免疫力吗？还是会
像流感一样，每年出现新的毒株，需要重复注射疫苗？关于新型肺炎的免疫反应，我们还有
很多需要了解的地方。”他认为要遏制疫情，疫苗是一种安全得多的方法。
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